In April 2025, Madagascar was threatened with a 47% reciprocal tariff by the US — one of the world’s highest — before it was replaced with a 10% universal levy. The US has given most countries until July 8 to strike a deal or risk reinstatement of the tariffs.

This announcement drastically impacted some of my clients in the textile industry, and I sincerely feel for their businesses. But most importantly, I worry for the thousands of workers who will inevitably lose their (low wage) jobs within the next months if things keep going down. How did it come to this? I’m sincerely unable to grasp the Keynesian economic rationale of it.

Let’s face it: Malagasy jobs have been facing the ups and downs of a very unstable global financial climate for a little while. Given how we deal with recurrent cyclones, it’s about time we start thinking of better ways to sustain ourselves and innovate for a more inclusive economy.

Periodically, we have this wave of panic around the middle of the year when tourists are supposed to pour in, but they don’t show up as numerous as expected; when money from exports is supposed to come back, but it doesn’t at the anticipated value; when the “soudure” period ends, and we’re supposed to gain from yields that finally don’t amount to what we calculated.

All this with the most unplanned way possible. Trust me, I’ve experienced 13 cyclone seasons in Madagascar after I came back from 13 years in Canada. I’ve seen more than 13 short-term schemes, and it’s safe to say: we’re going somewhere we don’t know yet.

Some will be very annoyed reading this truthful and informative post, and really, I don’t mind educating folks. Let’s add some numbers so that we can truly dig deeper into your annoyance, and I’ll keep to my field, which I know better:

– Building industry: This sector is a mix of formal and informal businesses, with a significant portion of small firms being unregistered. Therefore, we cannot accurately assess its exact 9% contribution to national GDP. Yet, we contemplate gigantic, non-collective, non-social projects intended solely for the 1%, which are built (and designed) exclusively by foreign companies or conglomerate-owned entities.

– Materials imports: While I have no reliable data source, imports are very significant in the building industry value chain. EDBM mentioned that between 2018 and 2022, the value of Madagascar’s imports increased from USD 3.93 billion to USD 5.48 billion. Let’s assume local sourcing materials like earth-compressed bricks and sustainable wood for the construction value chain will remain a “niche” for a little while.

– Guidelines, handbooks… no building codes! It’s been 10 years… Come on, guys! A handbook for paracyclonic construction was made 10 years ago with the lightest guidelines possible, and we’re building hundreds of the lightest structures even today. Just to make sure we get the same rounds of donations and supplies each year…

So, there you have it. This isn’t just about tariffs or cyclones; it’s about a deeper, systemic issue where we keep patching symptoms instead of addressing the root causes. It’s about a cycle of reactive measures and missed opportunities that ultimately stunts our growth and leaves our people vulnerable. Until we genuinely commit to homegrown, inclusive development that prioritizes our collective future over short-term gains or foreign interests, we’ll continue to face these same disheartening realities, stuck in a loop of panic and unfulfilled potential.